Can global rivalry between Islam and Christendom play up in Kerala polls to help Modi ?

Between 1950 and 2015, according to census figures gathered by the World Religion Database, a large comparative project based at Boston University, the share of the world’s population that is Muslim rose from 13.6 percent to 24. 

Over the same period, the share that is Christian fell from 35 percent to 33 percent -- says project-syndicate.org.

No such surveys are available in India. But time and again, Indian Muslims and Indian Christians have cooperated with each other even as the relationship has had its ups and downs. And obviously so.  

Now in the run up to the polls in Kerala -- the good old rivalry and friendship between Islamic interests and Christendom could come to the fore. And more so as the BJP is pushing it hard in the southern state to pick up one or two MPs from this 'God's own country' -- where so far it could not win one seat so far.  

Muslims constitute an estimated 26.6 percent population and Christianity at third with 18.4% population. There are 54.7 percent Hindus. So wooing all three communities are important in terms of electoral strategies.  The BJP thinks it has made enough noise for Hindus over the last few years. But a major challenge still remains -- can it really get the popular support base translate into votes. 

Can BJP really pick up a few seats in the southern state?  

Other issues are -- some static and some dynamic !!  For long, the CPI-M and the LDF were the Hindu parties in the state. Only Marxists know/knew the fine art of keeping Muslim appeasement card work full steam in West Bengal and also win Hindu votes both in Bengal and in Kerala. 

The Christians in Kerala - there was a time - overwhelmingly backed the Congress party and the regional outfit Kerala Congress. But survival anywhere is linked to transition and hence it could be a taboo for both Muslims and Christians to vote for pro-Hindutva (Hindu first) BJP.  But some contexts what is being argued here also ought to be understood. 

If Muslims had 'fatwa (religious diktat)' system, in Kerala Christians had Idaya Lekhanam. The clergy verdict/announcement. After BJP came to power in 1998 and the Congress lost its grip at the national level, the communists ideology began to gain acceptance within the church. 

The Idaya Lekhanam could actually mean - Bishop's article read at the Christian churches giving direction to their followers on various subjects including elections.

One controversy and political gossip that surfaced was about a Christian body's 'readiness' to spread a propaganda video that portrays young Christian females as being in danger of converting to Islam through ‘love jihad’. 

As it is Love Jihad carries a powerful political messaging among Hindus in Kerala and also in other parts of India including Uttar Pradesh.  

But Bishops in general sense have problems and issues with the Narendra Modi government.

"We are concerned by the attitudes that fuel divisions... and by the fundamentalist movements eroding the pluralistic philosophy that has always characterized our country and its Constitution," the bishops said in a statement. There is also a major issue of funds crunch as the FCRA amendments have forced closure of many organisations and their 'shops'.  

Hence it is easy and perhaps nature to speak about 'weakening of democratic institutions, destruction of minority rights, religious polarization, and an increase in poverty'.  How would these influence polls?

We are aware of the duty of neutrality in the Church, and the utmost caution not to mix spiritual authority and temporal power.

But it is also true that the Catholic Church in India is trying to get its people more engaged in politics, "but is extremely cautious and without really having the means to influence," said Christophe Jaffrelot, professor of Indian Politics and Sociology at the King's India Institute (London) and author of Modi's India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy (Princeton University Press, 2021). 

 

For his part, PM Narendra Modi has tried to reach out to Christians both in the northeast and in Kerala. While the protestant or Baptist organisations did not get as much audience with Modi during  the last decade, the Catholic leaders in Kerala were always welcomed even in the old Parliament building premises. 

In 2023, on Christmas morning, Prime Minister Modi welcomed a delegation of Christian figures to his official residence in New Delhi. Among them was Cardinal Oswald Gracias of Mumbai. Modi spoke of similarities between Christianity and Hinduism and said he was "touched" by his 2021 meeting with Pope Francis.

Later on what was debated in the social media and other places have been why no one questioned Modi about the increase in violence – exacerbated by the trivialization of anti-conversion laws – against Christians, or the ethnic and religious conflict affecting the state of Manipur.

But such interactions are not new.

In January 2020, BJP president J P Nadda met 15 Christian pastors most of whom expressed unease over the divisive Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). 

Nadda did not forget to mention that he had studied at the Jesuit-run St. Xavier’s school in Patna.

Party leaders feel that despite the campaign — “based on misinformation” — that the saffron party is anti-Christian, its acceptability has increased manifold in the seven north-eastern states, where tribal Christians account for a substantial part of the population.

The BJP is part of the government in the north-eastern states of Tripura, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur and Christian-dominated Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram. 

“Our alliance's regional partners are in power. Christians are not against the BJP as is claimed from time to time,” said Tom Vadakkan, a Christian member of the BJP.

However, V. Lal, an office-bearer of the Evangelical Fellowship, says “Christians in India are facing the brunt of nationalism, more precisely Hindu nationalism” promoted by the BJP.

In retrospect, many Christian leaders and tribals in the northeast have ill feelings toward the Narendra  Modi government and are skeptical about assurances regarding the safety and security of Christians.

Christian leaders point out that changes made by the central government to the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act have affected church bodies as funding has been hit. 

"Bit by bit we are feeling the pinch,” Reverend J. R. Sangma, general secretary of the Garo Baptist Convention, told UCA News in 2018, when his Meghalaya state went to the polls.

In the elections the Hindu nationalists only won two of the 60 seats, but its alliance partner NPP, headed by Conrad Sangma — a Christian — now runs the government with the BJP as part of the coalition.

"I think Modi was not able to convince people about his government's approach to minorities. We feel alienated. The prime minister's statements sound more like lip service," Reverend Sangma had said in 2018. 

In 2023 assembly polls too, the NPP won it again. In Nagaland, BJP is in power in partnership with regional party NDPP.  

Even Lalu's RJD is playing different .... the champion of MY card has fielded only two Muslim candidates out of 23 ::::: Are Muslims really being squeezed out of the democratic process ?

It's easy to blame Narendra Modi, or most of the attack is justified? Why Muslim number of candidates dwindling even amongst Opposition candidates? 

Forget BJP, - the public perception is it does not favour Muslim candidates or Muslim population in general. In Bihar, the custodian of 'MY' interest -- the RJD - - has fielded only two candidates of the 23 seats it is contesting this year as part of Mahagathbandhan alliance with Congress and other parties. 

Another Muslim candidate for the RJD is M.A.A. Fatmi from Madhubani.

The more things change, the more they look the same.

In terms of BJP’s relations with religious groups, the Christians and the Muslims have always held the saffron party in suspicion.

Many would not even hesitate to join the campaign that India's ‘secular character’ is at stake under the BJP-led dispensation.

Even as Muslims are 'presumed' to have voted in favour of BJP nominees in 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh and also during the state assembly elections in 2017 and 2022 and Christians inched closer to the saffron party in the northeast, there were doubts nevertheless that if ‘communal forces’ are not halted, the largest democracy in the world could fall prey to ‘destruction’ of old social structures. 

In political sense two powerful messages have been delivered - Art 370 abrogation and construction of Ram temple. The BJP spin, however, is that as far as the Temple goes -- the Hindus waited patiently and wanted the Supreme Court to resolve the dispute. Thus - Ram Lalla is back ! And on Article 370, this is more from 'nationalistic' standpoint and trying to workout a solution in Kashmir than to look at it from the communal prism.

But the third fear too is around. For 2024, BJP's promise to implement a uniform civil code (UCC) across the country -- it is feared will 'erode the rights of minorities' especially Muslims to freely practice their religion and culture.

Now in terms of parliamentary segments; many may not know that a place called Rampur in Uttar Pradesh had sent maximum number of Muslim lawmakers.  

Rampur has elected Muslim MPs 15 out of 18 times since 1952.

Rampur’s last Muslim MP was veteran politician Mohammad Azam Khan — but he quit after more than 80 legal cases were brought against him, ranging from land grabbing to intimidating government officials. Azam Khan was elected to the Lok Sabha as Samajwadi MP in 2019 defeating Jaya Prada of the BJP.  

In 2022 by-election, the saffron party wrested the seat when its nominee Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi polled 367,397 that is 51.96 percent votes defeating SP's Mohammad Asim Raza -- who had polled 3,25,205 votes accounting 46 percent. 

Now in 2024, among the four candidates trying their luck BJP's Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi is the only Muslim.

Samajwadi Party has nominated Mohibullah Nadvi while Zeeshan Khan is the BSP candidate. The Minorities Democratic Party has fielded Arshad Warsi.  

In Bihar again,  the Janata Dal (United) which is contesting on 16 seats as part of NDA has fielded only one Muslim candidate - Mujahid Alam from Kishanganj in the Seemanchal area. The constituency has a Muslim population of 68%. 

Alam is a former JD(U) MLA from Kochadhaman Assembly segment of the Kishanganj district. The Congress party, which is contesting on 9 Lok Sabha seats in the State, has put up two candidates from the Muslim community. 

Senior party leader and former MP Tariq Anwar from Katihar and Mohammed Jawed from Kishanganj seat.  Jawed is a sitting Congress MP from Kishanganj and he was the lone Opposition leader to win in Bihar in last 2019 Lok Sabha election. 

The remaining 39 seats had gone to the NDA candidates. The BJP which is contesting on 17 seats has not fielded any Muslim face in the state.

The AIMIM candidate from Kishanganj Mohammed Akhtarul Iman has created buzz among voters and has made the contest tough for the sitting MP Mohammed Jawed. Iman is the AIMIM MLA from Amour Assembly constituency.

   

RJD's Shahnawaz Alam is MLA from Jokihat, in the Muslim dominant seat of Araria seat in northeast Bihar. He is the son of former Union Minister and veteran Muslim leader Mohammed Taslimuddin. Alam had won the last Assembly election on an All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) ticket but joined the RJD in 2022 along with three other AIMIM legislators.

Importantly, other arguments are being put forward vis-a-vis further marginalisation of Muslims. According to Asaduddin Owaisi, AIMIM chief and Hyderabad lawmaker, it has become very difficult for the Muslim candidates from any political party to win. He calls it a "wider shift”.

He is also angry because even 'secular parties' are avoiding fielding Muslim candidates because they fear they would not appeal to Hindu voters.

Predictably, the BJP denies “active discrimination” based on religion, pointing out that representation depends on candidates winning elections. 

A handful of Muslim candidates the BJP fielded in the last two national elections all lost.

However, critics also accused the saffron party of showing disinterest in their campaign.

Are Muslims really being squeezed out of the democratic process ?

The complaint also is that in many places across India, strategies have been drawn to 'redraw constituencies' to minimise Muslim influence. In some places, the allegation is don’t allow Muslims to vote. 

“And of course, you can always deny tickets to Muslims...," says a Muslim trader in East Delhi.

The other story is of course from West Bengal -- where Mamata Banerjee plays a 'giant appeaser'and this also complicates things in more ways than one.

Phase 1 ---- Referendum on Namo --  Four catch-points define Modi -- Hindutva agenda, Development and reform agenda, Hyper nationalism and 'Moditva or Modi Brand' ... and people seem to endorse another five year term for Moditva

Phase 1 of Lok Sabha polls sees 60% voting against 69.43% in 2019 

The voters' turnout may be some indications at best.  Good turnout has been reported from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. The BJP has particularly worked hard for making deeper penetration in Tamil Nadu -- that throws up 39 seats. 

Four catch-points define Modi and his story of success -- the 'Moditva or Modi Brand',  Hindutva agenda, Development and Reform agenda and Hyper nationalism 

 

It's endorsement of Narendra Modi because he has himself made a pitch for a decisive and a strong government. Globally the situation is volatile and amid challenges on multiple fronts, hence the relevance of the Modi government is obvious.  

India has had a taste of a strong government and a strong leadership especially during the stint of Indira Gandhi. But that was also the period of sycophancy at its peak. Modi should be careful on that line. 

Absolute power may encourage sycophancy; -- but he will need loyalty and discipline to push his single-minded determined policy at times.  People may still overlook PM Modi’s extremely dodgy record with religious minorities.

The “positive” reasons for endorsing Modi are also interesting. A large section of the middle class and neo middle class perceive Narendra Modi as a super-CEO. 

He functions like a modern day CEO laying emphasis on the outcome and often allegedly putting the rules and normal norms in the backburner. There are several projects and welfare schemes, which Modi's ministers and others say, are possible only because there is Narendra Modi around. 

There has been another message. People still do not buy the line that Modi has been personally corrupt. 

The faceless Indian voters have proved themselves smarter that way than everyone dealing with them had thought.

The voter turnout was among the highest in Manipur (68.62%) and West Bengal (77.57%) when the polling concluded. These figures are crucial. 

Of the 102 seats where voting was held on Friday, the NDA had won 41 seats in the 2019 elections while the Congress-led UPA bloc emerged victorious in 45 constituencies. This time, however, six of these seats have been redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise. 

Trends suggest the BJP and NDA may pick up 55 seats from this round although their target would be little higher. What is of satisfaction for BJP is the high turnout of voters in Tamil Nadu and this could help the saffron party pick up 4-5 seats. Such an achievement will be dream come true for Modi and his team and electoral strategists like Amit Shah and the party's new found face in Tamil Nadu -- a former cop Annamalai.

A closer view suggests there is acceptance of Brand Modi and also the hyper nationalism. 

Now to look at the abrogation of Article 370 and construction of the temple at Ayodhya -- this is also about narratives. First - a clear message to the Muslims and secondly a general message to the people of India -- that Modi and his party will not only make promises in the future; they will deliver too. 

Of course there is a need to understand that a 'brute majority' in Parliament matters a lot. Most constitutional measures pushed by the Modi government especially abrogation of Art 370 was done with the help of 'numbers' or votes in both the Houses of Parliament. There was hardly any consensus on such a contentious issue. 

India’s 2024 general elections could redirect the country’s politics. Either it would be a mega push towards more majoritarianism or bring back the good old politics of the post-1947 era -- more plural and more predictable.

 

Whatever happens, it will be historic. This is also an era wherein from the US to Australia and even to Russia, everyone is looking towards India and its leadership.

In 2019, Modi was given a second term to run the world’s largest democracy. Modi became the first prime minister since 1971 to return to power with an absolute majority. He was the third one to do so after the country’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi.

If he wins 2024, he will be the first PM since Nehru to make a hat-trick to power. 

A new battle for the idea of 'India' may begin and it may clash with the idea of Bharat. Or are both the same?

 

2014 Memories :::: (I was interviewed by senior colleague,Jose Kavi for Matters India website on Modi phenomenon and BJP's historic victory) www.mattersindia.com

 

“Modi has unique ability to read people’s pulse”

(I was interviewed by senior colleague,Jose Kavi for Matters India website on Modi phenomenon and BJP's historic victory)  www.mattersindia.com

NEW DELHI: NIRENDRA DEV WAS FLOWN INTO AHMEDABAD, GUJARAT, WITHIN 24 HOURS AFTER A TRAIN COACH WAS TORCHED IN GODHRA KILLING 59 HINDU PILGRIMS ON FEBRUARY 27, 2002. HE WAS THEN A CORRESPONDENT OF THE PRESS TRUST OF INDIA, THE COUNTRY’S TOP NEWS AGENCY, AND STAYED IN GUJARAT FOR WEEKS TO COVER THE SUBSEQUENT HINDU-MUSLIM RIOTS THAT KILLED HUNDREDS AND CHANGED THE SOCIOPOLITICAL HISTORY OF THE WESTERN INDIAN STATE.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

            

                                                                  

                                                                  

Dev, who was born and brought up in northeastern India, found himself in a myriad of conflicting situations and encountered many incidents that changed his perception of India and the forces that really drive the country. “It was difficult to filter rumors from facts,” he recalls. He delved deep into the mindset of those indulging in sectarian violence and its victims. The result was the book, “Godhra, A Journey into Mayhem.”

One of his discoveries was Narendra Modi and his leadership qualities. 

Modi, who helped the Bharatiya Janata Party record its best electoral performance so far on May 16, 2014, was an unknown leader then. It was only months ago that the son of a tea stall owner was elected the chief minister of Gujarat. Dev says he could then sense Modi would one day emerge as a national leader and change the country’s fortune.

A few hours after it became amply clear that Modi would become India’s next prime minister Dev shared with Matters India about his perception of Modi and what he expects from the new Modi government.

MATTERS INDIA: You were one of the first persons to spot the leadership of Narendra Modi, way back in 2002. How do you feel now that Modi has managed a landslide unprecedented victory for BJP?

NIRENDRA DEV: It will be unfair to say I was the first to spot the ‘leadership’ qualities of Narendra Modi. Don’t forget that in December 2002, 50 million Gujaratis and, of course non-Gujaratis, elected Modi giving a landslide victory for BJP. Former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee spotted the talent and said the Gujarat experiment was worth emulating. Then, was Vajpayee pushing a Hindutva agenda? In Mumbai, Urdu scholar S Shikooh Sahib had told me almost the same thing that Modi would be projected nationwide and would do well politically.

But yes, I also could read the man. His ability to read the pulse of his people was unique. At times, I remember arguing that if Modi was a Hindu zealot then the entire Gujarat state was. Media and Congress party called Gujarat a laboratory. But Congress banked on a former RSS man Shankersinh Vaghela in Gujarat. In past 12 years, the Congress has not changed — Vaghela is still their leader in that state.

Why did India succumb to Modi mania?

Now, that’s the real question. It’s the hunger for change. Modi and BJP played ‘dream merchants’ at a time when people’s mood was downslide and everyone even in villages was feeling demoralized. I know about 50 people, relatives and friends in UP, Bihar and Bengal who have lost jobs in the past 10 years. (between 2004 and 2014)

Modi represented different aspirations to different sets of people and perhaps that’s the yardstick of a mass appeal of a leader. The ‘developmental plank’ ostensibly for twin reasons – first exposed the ‘decade-long misgovernance’ of the Congress-led UPA and secondly, it gave a makeover to his image vis-a-vis 2002.

Is India witnessing now what Germany witnessed in early 1930s, the euphoria for Nazis and other fascist forces? What are the signs that our country is not heading that way?

Sincerely, I hate this comparison. In Singapore, one ruler once said, there should be a trade between democracy or freedom and discipline. We also need it. What’s our freedom today? In Kerala and Bengal, people hate to work. And if you are bringing Hitler-Nazis comparison, I have said earlier, it’s advisable not to play the fear card. The Indian Constitution is too strong. Judiciary is strong. The President of India can dismiss any government. Rather I feel more powers must be vested in President’s office. A popular government can be put on well-check list then.

Coming back to Modi, what prompted you to write one of the earliest biographies of him?

The book on 2002 riots, “Godhra- A Journey to Mayhem,” came out genuinely. When a journalist decides to write a book, he is excited about the subject. He likes it or he is annoyed with it, disturbed with it. The communalism really disturbs me. I hate fundamentalism of all sorts. The Indian ‘secularism’ propagated by the Congress and Left and even parties of Mulayam Singh and Mamata Banerjee is also a Fundamentalism. They divide people. 

Muslims get 5 percent job quota, bigger amount of scholarship. Then, will it be wrong then if his Hindu classmate hates the Muslim boy. Our good friend, Mobarak Haider, a liberal Pakistani writer, says the Congress and the Left pampered the pathological Muslim narcissism, making Muslims more of a minority.

How did you get interested in Modi? You were born and brought up in northeastern India. What prompted you to write one of the earliest biographies of Modi?

Actually the incidents of 2002 made me interested in Gujarat and its principal protagonist. The Godhra train carnage was the start. There are various versions to that tragedy. Today in 2014, nothing has been brought out substantially about that incident. For 12 years, Congress tried to fix individual responsibility on Modi and thought that would ensure protection of ‘secularism’ in the country. 

The Congress style of looking at everything through prism of vote-capture mechanism has made Modi the leader that he is today.

You have been ridiculing those opposing Modi as “sickularists.” What does that term mean? What is secularism, according to you?

A good question. To me, secularism means respecting each other’s religion. Today, on May 16, 2014 when the mandate came, one Muslim journalist called it a Black Day for India. Now, what is that? He could disagree with the mandate. But should he insult people’s mandate? That’s Hitler for you. They create fanatics like Giriraj Singh. Congress leaders called Osama-bin-Laden Osamaji, under the presumption that such respect would keep the Muslims in good humor. I have spoken about doles and double standards. It’s not secularism. Secularism does not mean Muslim appeasement! If Modi is to be hanged and boycotted, why do we glorify late Rajiv Gandhi? And today, I stand vindicated. I was right. People also strongly feel about these.

Does the rise of Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi as India’s prime minister signal that the world’s largest democracy is entering its most sinister period since independence? That is the question many ask, especially the religious minority groups. What guarantees are there that Modi and RSS would not implement their dream of turning India into a Hindu nation?

Can you give me any guarantee about any politician? Could people have presumed that hundreds would be killed on the streets of Delhi in 1984? Why do we play the fear psychosis? Media is too half-baked and armed-chair. English media is worse. I am part of it. During my trip in rural UP, when local journalists told me, there’s strong ‘Modi wave,’ you know what I asked them. “Are you from the Hindi press?” So that’s our objectivity.

On May 15, if I had told you, BJP would win more than 280 seats, how would you have reacted? You would have called me a Modi agent!

But you would agree Modi should try to dispel such fears and sense of insecurity. What should he do to keep the entire country together as he takes it in the path of development?

The insecurity is created by media and political parties. They are best answered if the future Modi government focuses only on performance. BJP leaders say the expectations are frightening and they have to deliver. It’s very simple.

How do you assess Modi, as a person, a leader and a statesman?

We should not forget he is a politician. He is in the business of running a political party in a vibrant democracy like ours, where votes count. He has surpassed Vajpayee or L K Advani only by one principal criterion – that is the votes he garnered for BJP and NDA. He is not in charity or is not running Rama Krishna Mission. Yes, as a leader, he is known to be firm and may be autocrat too. Is Jayalalithaa not an autocrat? But his testing time is as an administrator. That he has to deliver carrying along the bureaucracy. It is easier said than done.

Modi is accused of encouraging crony capitalism as his greatest supporters are top business houses. Is he not propagating development that benefits only the rich and sidelines the poor?

Possibly you are right. But is the politics of good old socialism and Leftist-controlled economy relevant today? Why should journalists get 50 percent railway passes for their spouses, not once but twice a year? Why should an elected MP get rail travel concession life long? Somewhere you need to put your foot down. It’s the capitalist-driven development that can bring development. 

The Soviet Union style is known to all. On the other hand, we should ask why corruption and scams rocked Congress and worse how Robert Vadra [husband of Priyanka Gandhi] could make so much money. Was it not crony capitalism? In Nagaland, about government-contractors deal, it’s said, payments are received on earth for works done in heaven. And that’s a Christian state. If one business house has been helped by Modi, it can be probed and responsibility fixed. 

Voting begins .... world’s most populous country goes to 7-phase polls ::: Namo being the front-runner

Union Minister and #BJP candidate from #Dibrugarh #LokSabha constituency, #SarbanandaSonowal casts his vote at a polling station in #Dibrugarh.  #Assam Jatiya Parishad (#AJP) president #LurinjyotiGogoi is the #opposition's candidate for this seat

In the first phase, polling is being held on all seats in Tamil Nadu (39), Uttarakhand (5), Arunachal Pradesh (2), Meghalaya (2), Andaman and Nicobar Islands (1), Mizoram (1), 

Nagaland (1), Puducherry (1), Sikkim (1) and Lakshadweep (1). Besides, there is voting in 12 seats in Rajasthan, eight in Uttar Pradesh, six in Madhya Pradesh, five seats each in Assam and Maharashtra, four in Bihar, three in West Bengal, two in Manipur, and one seat each in Tripura, Jammu and Kashmir, and Chhattisgarh.

The world’s most populous country go to the polls, with Narendra Modi’s BJP the front-runner in vote that ends on 1 June

Poster -- in Chhattisgarh (AFP snap) 

Voting for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections has begun on 102 seats spread across 21 states and Union Territories. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to X stating: "I particularly call upon the young and first time voters to vote in large numbers. After all, every vote counts and every voice matters".   

BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is seeking a third successive term under PM Modi, the Opposition is hoping for a change in fortune as they are contesting the polls forming an umbrella alliance, I.N.D.I alliance.

All eyes will be on Tamil Nadu, where voting is taking place in all 39 Lok Sabha seats. 

BJP is hoping for miracles in the southern state.   

Over 969 million eligible voters – more than 10% of the world’s population will exercise their franchise in seven phase voting that ends on June 1. 

They represent the largest electorate anywhere and will include 18 million first-time voters.

More than 2,600 political parties are registered in this election. 

The Hindu nationalist policies of Modi is said to have shaped the political and cultural landscape of the country over the past decade. 

Congress veteran P Chidambaram and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat cast their votes in Chennai and Nagpur, respectively. Chidambaram exuded confidence in the INDIA bloc sweeping all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.  

Union Ministers in the fray in the first phase -- Nitin Gadkari, Sarbananda Sonowal, Bhupendra Yadav, Kiren Rijiju, Sanjeev Baliyan, Jitendra Singh, Arjun Ram Meghwal, L Murugan and Nisith Pramanik.

Besides them, BJP's Tamil Nadu chief K Annamalai, former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan, DMK's Kanimozhi and Congress's Gaurav Gogoi are also in the fray.

Of the 102 seats going to polls on Friday, the NDA had won 41 seats in the 2019 elections while the Congress-led UPA bloc emerged victorious in 45 constituencies. This time, however, six of these seats have been redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise.

Retro 2014 .... when skeptics did not believe Modi will make it and will be in power for so long .... Biggest puzzle of 2024 is -- Why there is no anti incumbency ??

Biggest puzzle of 2024 is -- Why there is no anti incumbency ??

In 2014 .... skeptics did not believe Narendra Modi will make it, humble the crown prince and Left liberals will be left leaking the wounds. Prophets of doom have been proved wrong and Modi has been in power.

-- 2014 ... For the first time, social networking sites were in play. The elections, therefore, marked a watershed in the history of free India. One question often debated has been why and how did Narendra Modi click across the country including in states where BJP hardly existed. 

Actually, Narendra Modi represented different aspirations to different sets of people. That’s the yardstick of a mass appeal of a leader. Call it a ‘wave’ or something else. To middle class and educated lot, Modi’s appeal was more fundamental to economy. He was seen as the economic reformer the middle class Indian and the army of netizens smitten by social networking bug were looking for.

2014: Sonia taking oath as MP in presence of Namo 

Modi in Diwali Milan for journalists : 2014 

His Deepawali Milan at BJP headquarter and interaction with journalists and senior editors on October 25, 2014 would stand out as an important day of the calendar. But as usual it stood as a mere cosmetic yet again where Modi cleverly avoided fielding questions.  Prime Minister Modi, who has often disapproved of uncomfortable questions from journalists and television anchors, in his first media interaction however did not field any question from the invited galaxy of editors and news reporters. 

Instead he sprang a surprise when in a unique friendly gesture, he took the camera of a BJP’s official photographer and clicked the cameraman’s photo instead. 

Amid North-South divide politics ---- April 19 voting can bring .... Delhi and Chennai closer to one another !! Will this happen ??

"India, home to more than 1.4 billion people, will begin its mammoth election on 19 April.  Voting machines in such less accessible parts are carried on the backs of horses and elephants and for some, polling booths can be reached only by boat. 

India also boasts the world’s highest polling booth, 15,256ft (4,650 metres) up in the Himalayan mountains." -- an article in 'The Guardian' 

"Indian voters ought to think hard about giving Narendra Modi another popular mandate", says an edit in London's 'The Guardian' newspaper.  

Pakistan's 'Dawn' carries a Reuters news agency story under the headline - "Modi critics migrate online as mainstream media stays deferential".  

"YouTuber Dhruv Rathee has accused Modi of behaving like a dictator in a Hindi-language video with over 27 million views, citing what he called the silencing of critics, the use of federal investigation agencies to browbeat the opposition and the crushing of farmer protests," says the 'Dawn' article.

Namo with his NSA Doval 

Eight key parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh go to the polls on Friday, April 19. They are Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit.

Out of 102 in the first phase of polling on April 19, ... BJP needs to win 67 and NDA 70 .. to achieve its 400 plus target

'The Guardian' editorial says:

"Unsurprising perhaps, as recent economic growth so disproportionately benefits the rich that India is more unequal today than under colonial rule. Holding elections burnishes India’s reputation as “the world’s largest democracy”, in contrast to China. 

More importantly, Mr Modi needs a popular mandate to legitimise his rule. 

Populist leaders run the risk of losing power to prevail over un-elected institutions that uphold the rule of law."

A cabbage farmer in Meghalaya 

Many meanings of Elections : Thy shall vote

.

New Delhi

Phase 1 of voting on April 18 will see 21 states and UTs head to the polls to elect 102 MPs.

The Congress party this year is contesting only 326 seats - lowest in its history.

The polling also will take place in Nagaland and other parts of the northeast. Outer Manipur is the only parliamentary segment in the country that will have two rounds of voting - one on Friday and the other during the second phase of voting.

A renowned global rights body, Civicus Monitor has stated in its latest (April 17) report - “India: Fundamental freedoms deteriorate further in Modi’s second term” -- that the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) was used to implicate and imprison activists in politically motivated cases such as the Bhima Koregaon and Delhi riots.

Between 2015 and 2020, only three percent or 235 of the 8,371 people arrested were convicted of their charges, the study said citing a report by the People’s Union of Civil Liberties.

Among the arrested, rights activist Father Stan Swamy was denied bail multiple times and died in a hospital as an under-trial prisoner on July 5, 2021.

Ten years --- certainly a long period. In 2014, intellectuals and political commentators believed Narendra Modi as a chief challenger to power by ousting Manmohan Singh faced competition from becoming Prime Minister from Rahul Gandhi and also Arvind Kejriwal.

Today, circa 2024, the AAP boss is in jail and the Congress leader Rahul is trying to anchor an opposition alliance.

In fact, in 2024, in order to accommodate its coalition partners across India, the Congress is contesting only 326 seats. So far, it has released names of 282 candidates. It's the lowest number of seats the Congress would be contesting in its electoral history.

In 2004 -- Congress contested 417 -- and won 145 to return to power.

In 2009 Congress contested 440 -- and humbled L K Adavni-led BJP to win 206 seats to ensure return to power for the Manmohan SIngh government.

But in 2014 - while the grand old fielded 464 --- its tally came all time low 44

In 2019 - the Congress contested only 421 seats and its tally was 52 -- still less than 10 percent of total 543 seats in Lok Sabha.  

Of course in between these years, Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party also evolved. In 2017, Rahul became Congress president amid a lot of hard work that could have helped Congress snatch power in Gujarat.

In 2019, he quit as president after the Lok Sabha poll debacle and in 2023 Rahul undertook a nationwide tour called Bharat Jodo Yatra.

It is true for the first time probably, many say, the Congress has confronted the 'Hindu nationalist politics of the BJP'. 

However, there are still skepticism as Congress still remains undecided about

many things including the candidates for Amethi and Rae Bareli.

The political metamorphosis, if any, got reflected in the Congress leader's own words: “Rahul Gandhi is in your mind. I have killed him. He is not there", the Wayanad MP had said himself.

But the past remains the political legacy to be discussed and debated.

The marginalisation of the Congress actually made AAP’s task easier in Delhi and

later in 2022 in Punjab. Even in Gujarat by 2022 end, the AAP gained ground at the cost of Congress.

In the real sense when the I.N.D.I alliance was formed -- the AAP and the Congress really had a test case of sleeping with the enemy.

One irony also was that the Muslim voters in Delhi in the 2020 assembly polls were helplessly drawn

towards Kejriwal’s party.

Final words:

The BJP may appear strong today. But in 2015 - Naredra Modi had lost two crucial battles in Delhi

and in Bihar. In 2016, barring Assam, the saffron party did not have any success.

The Prime Minister had complicated his journey further when he announced demonetisation

on Nov 8, 2016. Then the GST enforced from July 1, 2017 again agitated his support base.

The BJP almost lost Gujarat to Congress; but the opposition could not step up the assault.

Besides the Congress, most of the 'prime minister aspirants' from the opposition camp, including the likes of  BSP chief Mayawati, suffered major setbacks in the 2014 and 2019 polls.

In Telangana, BRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao nurtured such high ambitions. He even renamed his  party but in 2024 he is out of power in the state. And worse, his daughter K Kavitha is behind bars on Delhi liquor policy scam.  

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP supremo N Chandrababu always played a key role in national politics. He is back in the BJP-led NDA fold. Nitish Kumar of JD-U has a similar legacy of love-hate relationship with Modi.  

Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal still remains a strong competitor. But apparently stakes are high this year due to Sandeshkhali and allegations of corruption. In 2019, she gave away 18 seats to the BJP.

2014 article/blog 

Mothers’ blind love for sons: Undoing of two Gandhis

THIS PIECE WAS ALSO RUN BY WWW.MATTERSINDIA.COM

Finding similarities between Rahul and his uncle Sanjay Gandhi!

In one of the historic and most crystal clear mandate since 1984, the BJP was handed over a landslide victory. “Politicians would soon run out of adjectives to describe the election outcome….,” wrote my Editor, Ravindra Kumar, for ‘The Statesman’ in his piece the next day.

The ‘Modi wave’ – dismissed by Congress and other regional players like Mamata, Nitish and Lalu Prasad – and which personified the anti-incumbency anguish, swept aside many previous records.

The Congress decimation has turned out to be worst in its 129-year-old history and in the 17^th year of Sonia Gandhi’s career. Reduced to mere 44 just 7 seats more than Jayalalitha’s AIADMK and 10 seats more than Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, normally, with any party by now the clamour should have grown on what would happen to the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi. Efforts have been made to protect the dynasty. Likes of Divijay Singh got into actions. The family retainer or so, Manishankar Aiyar called Narendra Modi ‘Adolf Hitler’ hours before he took over as the Prime Minister.

It’s the same Mani who in January 2014 screamed at the peak of his voice that Modi cannot ever become Indian Prime Minister and that he was free to distribute tea at the AICC session.

Today, Congress leaders in isolation and in separate pockets making noises especially against Rahul Gandhi. Even Mizoram chief minister Lal Thanhawla, a Congressman of many years and a Christian himself, has lambasted the party leadership of the manner it has been handling the defeat.

His eloquent oneliners are more than the normal reactions from disgruntled Congressman.

Lal Thanhawla said the party “paid for its misdeeds” and it “does not know how to face defeat”. He added he has written to Sonia to refrain from blame-game in the party and rather introspect instead. “In that way, the defeat we faced is good for us,” he said.

Now where does this lead to? In my opinion, the Congress leaders’ disgruntlement is more against the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, whose ‘ability’ to deliver for the grand old party is now no longer a state secret.

An honest analysis of 2014 Mandate would make it amply clear that no single factor has contributed more to the downfall of Congress party in these elections than Rahul Gandhi and his flirting with failures.

As an ardent student of Indian elections, I find some similarity emerging between Rahul and his ‘illustrious’ uncle the Late Sanjay Gandhi though as personalities both are from diametrically different stocks.

So has Sonia Gandhi emulated her mother-in-law Indira Gandhi in displaying her unquestionable love for a son, who is today seen as a political liability?

 The hapless Kerala Congressman TH Mustafa’s unceremonious suspension is a case in point.

Old timers would vouch with me that on the eve of 1977 elections when Indira Gandhi was cautioned by her coterie members like P N Haksar and Subhadra Joshi, Indira’s response used to be: “Those who attack Sanjay attack me”.

If inside reports from AICC are to be believed, Sonia almost took the same line when at the parliamentary party meeting she pulled up Milind Deora for speaking out of line when the former South Mumbai MP did some plain speaking!

So does it bring us back to the agonizing tale of a mother’s blind for her son?

In 2012, Time magazine had written acidly, "Nobody really knows what he is capable of, nor what he wishes to do should he ever attain power and responsibility. The suspicion is growing that Mr (Rahul) Gandhi himself does not know”.